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A total of 22 participants were purposely recruited to provide detailed insights.
Participants broadly accepted the principle that gambling information should be transparent and accessible, but many reported difficulty interpreting or using it effectively in practice.
Technical data such as odds and rules were often obscured by delivery timing that came too late to influence decisions.
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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
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“Unregulated is not illegal,” he asserted. “We will continue to support those markets that we believe over time will become regulated.
“Our investment is going into regulated markets, and yes over time we will likely consider pulling out of certain markets. I think Playtech has done a very good job, [regulated revenues] are more than 85%.”
Meanwhile its B2C revenue, which took a significant hit last year as it offloaded the majority of its B2C operations, including Snaitech and Happy Bet, declined 22% to €32 million.
