Raging Dragons

About Raging Dragons

Are you listening, Oh you gaming industry execs? If you’re a CEO reading this, or a CFO, and you’re struggling with shut down casinos and mounting debt, I’m talking to you. You have only a few months at most to protect your companies from a hyperinflationary nuclear bomb that is about to go off and destroy everything in its path. The fuse is being lit as I write this. I will now describe the fuse.

About 18 months ago I wrote this weird, esoteric, wacky article. I made the case that once U.S. dollar interest rates went negative, all commodities would warp into backwardation. Meaning, the spot prices for all commodities would become more expensive than their futures price. This is now happening. Almost all commodities are now in persistent backwardation. All grains, sugar, lumber, and cotton; energy including natural gas and both Brent and WTI crude oil; base metals including copper, tin, and iron ore. They are all in backwardation now, and some have been that way for months now. The CRB commodities index is now climbing at its fastest pace ever, doubling since March.

And this is with various forms of lockdowns persisting in Europe and the U.S., which should mute industrial demand for commodities. Paper currencies are dying. That’s what’s happening, pure and simple. And they are about to get their death blow.

How to play Raging Dragons

The failure to secure passage of the bill is a stinging defeat for both crypto-connected prediction operators and the CFTC, which has fully embraced the advance of digital assets under Chairman Michael Selig. Interest groups and political action committees had spent countless hours and millions of dollars lobbying for the legislation.

In statements, op-eds and media interviews since his appointment, Selig had pounded the table for a federal crypto framework. As the IGA’s Bean alluded to, the Clarity Act would have given the agency a number of new duties and authorities related to the new assets at a time when the commission’s existing workload has been cause for concern. There are typically five sitting CFTC commissioners at any given time, but Selig is currently the lone sitting commissioner with no other nominations submitted.

Selig recently hosted a meeting of the CFTC’s so-called Innovation Advisory Committee, which featured extensive discussion about crypto from leading CEOs. The committee’s charter says members pledge to “provide advice and recommendations” on several topics, including crypto assets and blockchain technology.

What is Raging Dragons?

Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.

“We continue to view regulation as the largest risk to prediction markets,” says the analyst. “While industry growth remains robust, adverse legal outcomes could materially impact sports contract availability and long-term adoption.”

Amid a string of losses in federal appellate courts, it appears increasingly prediction markets are angling to take their cases to the U.S. Supreme Court, banking that the high court will allow them to continue offering sports event contracts free of state gambling regulations.